In an attempt to limit the costs of protecting allies, Trump suggests to pull the U.S. military out of Japan and South Korea if he is elected president, and replacing the 54,000 troops in Japan and 28,500 troops in South Korea with nuclear weapons.
Both countries halted nuclear development after U.S. promised security in the 1970s, leaving the United States in a powerful position but South Korea and Japan in a very dependent one.
Japan, the only country that has ever been attacked with nuclear weapons, has had a non-nuclear weapon policy since the end of World War II. Their constitution officially made them a pacifist nation that relies on self-defense with the help of the U.S. forces that are stationed there. Even though polls have shown that the majority of Japan opposes nuclear development, these numbers could change with the removal of the U.S. military.
Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, publically responded to Trump’s suggestion by stating that “the Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of Japan’s diplomacy.”
Trump believes South Korea is better off without the U.S. military against the “maniac of North Korea,” and if South Korea doesn’t start protecting themselves, they’ll have to start paying higher fees for the U.S. troops. Trump claims that South Korea is a “money machine” that is paying the United States very little for the troops that are stationed there.
There’s a small minority of people in South Korea who agree with Trump’s suggestion, including academic Cheong Seong-Chang from the Sejong Institute who believes South Korea will be in a better position to fight off North Korea if they had nuclear weapons on their side.
However, the rest of the South Korea population doesn’t seem to agree with Seong-Chang.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, and the White House all claimed Trump’s statement about how little South Korea pays as inaccurate. Mark Lippert, a South Korean ambassador, said that Seoul pays for 55 percent of all non-personnel costs.
According to Daniel Pinkston, Troy University International Relations lecturer, “whether he is elected president or not, even at this stage, he is already doing damage to the U.S. reputation internationally.”
With the removal of U.S. troops, the security situation would lead South Korea and Japan in a race to develop nuclear weapons and a possible threat to nuclear warfare in Asia and Europe.
However, this wouldn’t happen over night. These countries would need time to develop these nuclear weapons and arsenals, and perhaps giving China a chance to step in a halt the development.
If the U.S. military were to leave South Korea and Japan and both countries end up developing nuclear weapons, the chances of these smaller countries using nuclear power over a territory dispute between China, South Korea, and Japan in the South and East China Seas increases.
But, these issues only illustrate what could happen if Trump wins and decides to keep his promise on removing U.S. troops.
Christopher Hill, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said “I don’t know what he’s talking about, but clearly neither does he.”
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